Ed Moya – Flood Of Bearish Headlines Continue Pressuring Markets And Spiking The US Dollar
Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, joins us to review the flood of bearish headlines that continues to pressure the US and foreign equity markets, as well as spike the US dollar. We start off discussing the health of the economy, job markets, and consumer, where the risk aversion and defensive posturing has people fleeing to go into the perceived safe haven of the greenback. This move higher in the US dollar is further accentuated by the weakness in other key currencies like the pound, euro, and yen. Ed points out the financial challenges that the Bank of England has faced of late, mimicking the same challenges most of Europe or Japan is also facing.
With inflation continuing to run hot globally, and central banks tightening their monetary policies and continuing to hike rates, most economists and market pundits are expecting to see general markets keep rolling over. We talk about the outlook for Q3 and Q4 earnings looking to be weak, and companies messaging the impact of higher input costs and more expensive labor costs, their focus will be on cost cutting measures to assist shrinking margins and that could mean more layoffs.
Oil has at least started to pull back down, with crude oil in the high $70s, but Ed feels that could be short-lived and that supply still remains tight and should underpin relatively strong energy prices in the medium-term. As for Gold, Ed points out that is remains under pressure with surging interest rates and the strong dollar, and if everything goes wrong and there is a final flush lower, then he mentioned $1550 becomes an attractive area for accumulation.
Click here to follow along with Ed’s daily market commentary.
And down the tubes they go again, glug, glug, glug.
PMs are getting murdered by the strength of the dollar among other forces BEYOND YOUR CONTROL!!!
The only control you have is to SELL, SELL, SELL!!!!
These PM miners are going into the dump, many of these companies will go BANKRUPT soon.
They will be snapped up for PENNIES on the dollar, if they are lucky.
There isn’t much time left, you don’t sell soon you will be selling for much lower prices in November and December.
But hey, don’t listen to me, I’ve only been right, telling you the same thing over and over again, for months now.
Belgium shut down another Nuclear Power Plant today, despite electricity rates having gone up 67% in one year. You couldn’t dream up something this stupid if you tried. I guess you need to get a job in the government to understand how anyone could be so stupid. DT
Yep, we’ve been seeing stupid across the board in energy policies all over the globe for the last few years.
Gareth Soloway – Stocks, Bitcoin Will Erase All Gains Since 2020 By Year-End
David Lin – Kitco News – September 23, 2022
The XAU hasn’t made a new low vs commodities (CRB) since August…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3A%24CRB&p=M&yr=25&mn=11&dy=0&id=t3920250472c&a=1243647013&r=1664226417551&cmd=print
If Russian ICBM hits London – what is market reaction going to be? Euro toast? Another Dollar spike? Gold hits $2200 overnight?
CaliJoe, if a real Russian ICBM hits London, only some of the cockroaches on this planet will survive. DT
That’s ridiculous. The financial bombs being dropped in Europe by the US far more devastating and gold continues down.
Gold hits $2200, along with Slim Pickens!
EX…………….I concur with Gareth on the Fed eventually stopping the rate hike cycle………..but with the De-globalization supply chain damage and damage to the Energy supply sector…………..inflation may remain sticky in the 4 to 5 % range……………with the Fed impotent with rising unemployment and not being able to ease any time soon………..stagflation can go on for years till supply side works it’s way back to conquer inflation………….a total malaise for the stock world can be expected for a frustratingly long time………….just nowhere to hide except maybe good dividend paying energy stocks when they end up bottoming ?
Make no mistake, the Fed WILL eventually pause but it’s already too late to happen the way the “pivoters” thought it would.
It’s interesting that gold went up the most in the 1970s when the FFR was hiked the most. For example, between January and August 1973, the FFR was hiked 5% (500 bps) in a total of 7 hikes and gold doubled by that June. In 1978, rates were hiked 2.5% in 9 increments and gold was up 47% by the end of that October.
This year we’ve seen 5 hikes so far totaling 3% but it’s worth pointing out that the FFR matched official inflation 3 times in 1978 alone:
-Jan. 17 inflation was 6.8% so the FFR was raised to 6.75%
-Aug. 16 inflation rose to 7.8% so the FFR was raised to 8%
-Oct. 18 inflation was 8.9% so the FFR was raised to 9%
Last spring I guesstimated that we might see a pause around 5.5% or 6% based on YOY inflation coming down and the Fed continuing to take its time. I think that level and probably more will be priced-in by the market well before it happens. The Fed’s dot plot has been way off (way too low) consistently. The outlook just one year ago was ridiculously low/wrong:
https://thecorner.eu/news-the-world/world-economy/fed-signals-faster-tapering-in-2023-but-under-delivers-on-next-years-dot-plot/98388/
Good thoughts LarryC, and yes dividend paying energy stocks have a been a good way to weather the inflationary storm the last 2 years. As for Gareth’s video, I found it thought provoking on a few of the markets and technicals he covered, and worth sharing.
With regards to the “Powell Pivot” concept, we’ve heard a range of people weigh in on their interruption and it ranges from the Fed starting to stair step down the amount of rate hikes from 75 to 50 to 25 basis points, to a pause for a few months to assess the results as an early indication of being out of wiggleroom, or eventually the reversal of policy back to rate cuts and/or potentially more QE bond buying.
It would seem that many were wrong thus far that thought the Fed would never taper (which they have done) or would never hike or only hike 1 and done. Clearly the Fed has messaged that they are going to keep hiking rates to reduce the demand side of the equation, and they have stated they want a 4%-4.5% Fed funds rate by the end of the year, and outlined another 75 basis point hike and a 50 basis point hike for Nov & Dec. Now a lot can change between now and then, but if there is to a be a pivot, it seems market consensus is that is will be the middle of 2023.
Looks like I got my first post removed from the site today, LOL!
I guess I touched a nerve 😉
Ok, I’ll stop posting here since dissenting opinions are not tolerated here anymore.
Enjoy your echo chamber.
Joe:
My experience is that I screw up my email or name. Don’t think they would suppress an opinion that has no fact supporting it.
It wasn’t anything like that. It was the second post in this thread, I saw it on the site for a minute or two and then POOF, it was gone.
I guarantee you did something to cause it to go to moderation. No one has ever been deleted here except in rare instances involving name-calling (yes, I’m guilty and speak from experience).
Joe – I just got back home and checked and your post had gone to moderation, and was just released, and you’ll see it showing at the top as the 2nd post. I never touched it and don’t believe Cory did either, so others that offered you counsel were correct it was moved to moderation for some reason, but was not deleted.
Once again, someone made a big stink about dissenting opinions not be allowed, which is 100% fake news, as dissenting opinions are fine, and we are far too busy than to go around removing most posts. If he or I see a particularly ugly post with lies, attacks, and too much name calling then sometimes we’ll remove them for the integrity of the forum, but that is very very rare.
So again, your amazing post is up there for all to see. It would be nice it you provided the actual technical or fundamental data that has allows you to know so assuredly the exact outcome of the selloff into the 4th quarter.
Doc, where are you?
Your opinion is always valued here from me.
Dxy went over my target of 1.12 but I’m not amused it’s in a blow of phase and the consensus currently is to the moon the best of the pigs! I once learned from Peter s, bob m, and a few others that being a true contrarian at some point holds merit…
How desperate is jp Morgan and Goldman currently with price supresión? Well I’ve never seen this before and it’s 100% manipulation of the paper asset that is moving this fraud 100% but the key is to navigate around it. I have not sold a share as of yet and I’m not the best timer of things.
Many talk about 2020 but I’m seeing 2008 all over again with miners and the trend or call it pattern which indicates from bpgdm and bearish talk combines with oversold rsi and slow stochastics that it’s a w long term bottom that has been manipulated and we are about to go boom! Hard to believe yes!
I mentioned we would not break the low in gold we did that’s fine. This to me is nothing more then a desperate paper undercut of the shorts and it will be a v recovery as I mentioned long ago and many said not. The overshoot is so evident that currently everyone is scared out I’ve there minds. Don’t sell! Contrary to joe because the move higher will be powerful imo and this is precisely what jp wants!
My call for oil over a month ago has been bang on.. lower consolidate then lower. Everyone thought going to the moon. Secondly last week green spoke about brixton going to the gutter and he would purchase while I stated facts why Brixton this week would tag 23/24.5.
Different folks watching different charts. I fail at some but win at others.
October will mark are low like 2008 from what I see but September can put an incredible bottom. It’s possible September brings the low and October the fake low but put it this way all my investments are in and that means all my financials are in. If this turns out to be the worse bear ever I’m screwed but I did all my work and in 2/3 years if it works out, I will gladly pay for ex, Jerry, Matthew, Charles, Irish, Cory, al, wolf, dan, ann ( hope all is good) , and to however else supported Glen a person who just shares his insight and is not closed minded to one person or others. Sharing is caring and when all is said and done, my numbers will be on par!!
Many talk but few walk the talk I sure will mark these words. Got off topic that’s Glen.
Don’t sell period! I’ve learned since i got here Matt and ex fighting off who they could at rock bottoms and doc saying it how it is and Gary providing his cycles! Learn learn learn
Glen
Hello Glen………….
Hoping all is well., … thanks for the report……..
Here is one for you……..
Ron Paul says there is NO GOLD IN FT. KNOX……….
We have been doing extensive study , over in the ORPHAN SECTION
there are a few GREAT ARTICLES posted….. and not just Political
Same issues but could be multiple links in it also. Not to worry, as it will either reappear or you can write it again.
Lake is right Joe, it will eventually posts.
Maybe it’s your links with the charts and technicals used to justify your position that are at issue.
Need some levity on the site.
Joe’s post had gone to moderation, and just was released, once I got home and saw the BS comments about dissenting views not being allowed, which is nonsense. Neither Cory or I touched it though, and it is released now…. unfortunately, no not with any charts, technical data, fundamental data, or any clear thesis… just a 50/50 guess that things will keep selling off because Joe says so, and so that should be enough… 😉
Do not worry…………. Joe will figure it out later,….. when he figures out how the system works… 🙂
Sorry for suplicate thought it was worthy 🙂
Glenfidish
7 hours ago
Doc, where are you?
Your opinion is always valued here from me.
Dxy went over my target of 1.12 but I’m not amused it’s in a blow of phase and the consensus currently is to the moon the best of the pigs! I once learned from Peter s, bob m, and a few others that being a true contrarian at some point holds merit…
How desperate is jp Morgan and Goldman currently with price supresión? Well I’ve never seen this before and it’s 100% manipulation of the paper asset that is moving this fraud 100% but the key is to navigate around it. I have not sold a share as of yet and I’m not the best timer of things.
Many talk about 2020 but I’m seeing 2008 all over again with miners and the trend or call it pattern which indicates from bpgdm and bearish talk combines with oversold rsi and slow stochastics that it’s a w long term bottom that has been manipulated and we are about to go boom! Hard to believe yes!
I mentioned we would not break the low in gold we did that’s fine. This to me is nothing more then a desperate paper undercut of the shorts and it will be a v recovery as I mentioned long ago and many said not. The overshoot is so evident that currently everyone is scared out I’ve there minds. Don’t sell! Contrary to joe because the move higher will be powerful imo and this is precisely what jp wants!
My call for oil over a month ago has been bang on.. lower consolidate then lower. Everyone thought going to the moon. Secondly last week green spoke about brixton going to the gutter and he would purchase while I stated facts why Brixton this week would tag 23/24.5.
Different folks watching different charts. I fail at some but win at others.
October will mark are low like 2008 from what I see but September can put an incredible bottom. It’s possible September brings the low and October the fake low but put it this way all my investments are in and that means all my financials are in. If this turns out to be the worse bear ever I’m screwed but I did all my work and in 2/3 years if it works out, I will gladly pay for ex, Jerry, Matthew, Charles, Irish, Cory, al, wolf, dan, ann ( hope all is good) , and to however else supported Glen a person who just shares his insight and is not closed minded to one person or others. Sharing is caring and when all is said and done, my numbers will be on par!!
Many talk but few walk the talk I sure will mark these words. Got off topic that’s Glen.
Don’t sell period! I’ve learned since i got here Matt and ex fighting off who they could at rock bottoms and doc saying it how it is and Gary providing his cycles! Learn learn learn
Glen
Glenfidish, thanks for providing your technical outlook and reasoning behind the setup and scenario you see playing out.
Glen…………see note above……… I posted for you…………… 🙂
JNUG 52 week low. Silver sucking wind. I remember Doc nibbling on Walbrige at 28 cents. Who cares where it is now
Folks, this is forced selling from margin calls on those who bought the transitory inflation argument, sputtered from Lunch Box Joe after sniffing a 6 year olds hairs
weekly DXY…This run since the prior intermediate low on 5/30/22 is the longest strongest ever intermediate dollar run…They have maximum time range historically of 19 weeks…This is week 17 and that leaves only 2 weeks for a typical intermediate cycle correction…If it takes hold it could be a very strong profiting event…glta
Nothing says this sharp pullback must occur…. It only says historical statistically pertinent data allow for this event to be what is expected….
there she goes…first a daily swing low…then next week a swing low…if not, the low lies farther out…glta
To keep with the theme: some up, some down and some in moderation (almost an hour after opening and about one-third of my miners, schwab is showing no pricing or volume).
Better get the PHYZ…………… while you can…….. JMO
Got some coming from SD Bullion, but their supply is down from the normal.
The irony of USD going hyperbolic.
I’ve always maintained that global central bankers completely coordinate monetary policy in order to get what they want. The bankers are trying to kill commodities via interest rate differentials like they did from 2012-2016 while they continue to stay relatively accomodative.
The insane thing is that the world allows the bankers to do this. The possibility of bankers abusing this rigged system for their own gain is off the charts. It is beyond mind blowing.
SPOT ON………………
Some still believe in the FAKE FED……………. what a joke…….
Bank of England Vows to Raise Rates as Much as Needed as Pound Slumps
Geoffrey Smith – Investing.com – Sep 26, 2022
“The Bank of England said it won’t hesitate to raise interest rates as needed, hurrying to reassure markets spooked by the plans of the new government under Prime Minister Liz Truss. Truss’s finance chief Kwasi Kwarteng had unveiled the biggest tax cuts in 50 years in an effort to kickstart growth in an economy hobbled by an energy crisis as well as the after-effects of Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic.”
“However, markets have viewed the plans as unsustainable and inflationary, pushing the pound to an all-time low against the dollar and sending government bond yields skyrocketing. The pound fell to $1.034 earlier Monday and then ticked higher.”
https://www.investing.com/news/economy/bank-of-england-vows-to-raise-rates-as-much-as-needed-as-pound-slumps-2899116